The fourth season of the Todd Whitten era at Sam Houston State came to a bitterly disappointing end Saturday evening. At the same time, it was a fitting end.
The 2008 season was a microcosm of Whitten’s tenure at SHSU.
— A potentially explosive offense that looked unstoppable depending upon the week, and sometimes from series to series within a game.
— A bend-but-don’t-break defense that too often snapped when it mattered most.
— An ultraconservative special teams strategy that gave up more game-changing plays than it ever tried to produce.
— An inability to win the big game, whether it was an outstanding effort that came up just short (Central Arkansas) or a disheartening no-show performance (McNeese State).
Whitten’s overall record at SHSU is 20-22, with a 13-13 mark in the SLC. Nine of those 13 conference losses and five of the wins have been by 8 points or less, including four setbacks this season. Those close calls show that more often than not, the Bearkats have fielded a competitive team under Whitten. But they also show a disturbing ability to be not quite good enough.
I’m not a statistics or polling expert, but I understand the concept of using statistical samples to prognosticate long-term trends and anticipated results. After four seasons under Whitten’s leadership, SHSU is a sub-.500 program. The Bearkats have consistently failed to beat the top programs in the Southland Conference, and have lost numerous games to teams they shouldn’t — most recently two home losses in overtime to finish the season, including a blown 21-point lead that allowed Texas State to celebrate a conference championship on the Bowers Stadium turf.
Based on those results, we have a more focused picture of what probably lies ahead for SHSU should Whitten remain the head coach. The Bearkats will continue to be a middle-of-the-pack SLC program. There’s little evidence to suggest SHSU will close the gap currently held by traditional power McNeese State and impressive newcomer Central Arkansas. We can expect a team that has some winning seasons mixed with some losing seasons depending upon the outcome of regular nail-biters against the rest of the SLC, and possibly an occasional season where everything falls into place and the Bearkats make some noise on the national landscape.
The decision to fire a head coach is never cut and dried. SHSU director of athletics Bobby Williams has numerous factors to consider. Some of them, such as on-field results are out in the open for all to see and draw their own conclusions, but many more involve issues that Joe Public will never know or fully understand.
The decision will not be easy, but the choices are clear.
If you think Whitten is capable of improving and building SHSU into a program that regularly competes for the SLC championship and national playoff appearances, keep him.
If you don't believe Whitten is the right man to lead SHSU’s program to the next level, it’s time to let him go.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
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