SHSU FOOTBALL — Meeting expectations: Losing to LSU is not a big deal; getting embarassed is

SHSU athletics director Bobby Williams likes to say, “It’s a great day to be a Bearkat,” and I almost always agree with him. But as I sat inside Tiger Stadium on Saturday night, and even as I drove home Sunday, I was not feeling so great.

Saturday night’s showing by the Bearkats was embarrassing.

As someone who is proud of my university and brags often about the athletic accomplishments of the young men and women who represent our school, I was beyond disappointed at what I had seen.

I was hoping the six-plus hour drive home Sunday would put me in a better mood after watching Sam Houston State get destroyed 56-0 at LSU on Saturday night. It didn’t. In fact, with each passing mile of interstate across Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, I found myself more frustrated the more I thought about it.

I know the reality of FCS teams playing against FBS teams. SHSU is 3-27 all time against FBS opponents, with wins against some sorry squads at Louisiana-Lafayette in 2000, Louisiana-Monroe in 2001 and New Mexico in 2011.

My expectation when SHSU plays a premiere program from the SEC or Big 12 does not include winning. Of course, I always want the Bearkats to win, but I don’t expect to win against a team like LSU. Those schools have players that should be bigger, faster, stronger and more talented — not to mention they have about 20 more of those type of players on scholarship.

I don’t expect SHSU to win, but I do expect the Bearkats to compete. I expect the players to be well coached, to perform at a high level, to play smart, to execute to the best of their ability and give a performance that makes me, as a graduate, proud of our university.

None of those things happened Saturday night in Baton Rouge.

Yes, the Bearkats played hard — especially in the second half when they could have quit. They never did. The players and coaches carried themselves with class and dignity and they displayed good sportsmanship. In those terms they were great ambassadors for Sam Houston State.

But when it comes to the Xs and Os of football, they stunk.

• I still have no idea why the Kats tried a trick play on the opening drive of the game. After two easy first downs in which LSU’s defense was on its heels, SHSU called a flea-flicker. It fooled none of LSU’s defensive backs, and quarterback Jared Johnson should have thrown the ball away. Maybe he was trying to do just that, but the slow-developing play allowed LSU’s pass rushers to get to Johnson for the first time. He was hit as he released the ball, and the pass was easily intercepted. The play call was a foolish and unnecessary self-inflicted injury. After the game, coach K.C. Keeler said the flea-flicker is a standard play in SHSU’s offense and we can expect to see it again several times this season. That’s fine. Hopefully the coaches have learned a lesson and do a better job of calling the play at an appropriate time.

• After the interception, it appeared SHSU’s coaches were the only people in the stadium who didn’t know LSU would attack on the very next play. The Kats called a defense that left a defensive back isolated against a bigger, faster, stronger wide receiver with no safety help. The result, naturally, was an easy 94-yard touchdown pass — the longest touchdown pass in the history of LSU football — and a 6-0 lead less than 90 seconds into the game.

• When the Kats did reach the red zone late in the first quarter, trailing 13-0, they faced a fourth-down decision. Kick a field goal, or go for it? I’m OK with the coaches being aggressive on fourth-and-two, but the play call was horrible — a fade route to the left corner of the end zone, thrown from the right hash mark, requiring Johnson to throw a ball 40-plus yards through the air and drop it on a dime in order to be caught, assuming the receiver could actually get open. It never had a chance. That was the best play the coaches could come up with in such a critical situation?

There were other plays — a dropped pass on third down that preceded the failed fourth-down conversion… a dropped interception in the end zone that would have prevented another LSU touchdown drive… a senseless fumble inside the five-yard line that essentially gave LSU another free seven points — that could have kept the game competitive.

And that’s really what I want to see when SHSU plays a “guarantee” game. BE COMPETITIVE! Execute simple things that you have done hundreds of times in practice. Make plays that matter when the opportunity is presented. As coaches, be aware of the advantages the other team has and make decisions that put your players in a position to be successful.

Just once when the Bearkats play a high-profile FBS team, I want to see them play the way McNeese State did against Nebraska (losing 31-24), the way Eastern Washington did against Washington (losing 59-52), the way Central Arkansas did last week against Texas Tech ( losing 42-35) or the way North Dakota State did last week in beating Iowa State 34-14 — and has every time it has played a FBS opponent and beat them the past five seasons. (To be fair, LSU would be at least a 14-point favorite against Nebraska, Washington, Texas Tech or Iowa State).

McNeese State, EWU and UCA — programs that SHSU is every bit as good as — didn’t pull off the upset when the had the chance, but they earned respect from their opponents as well as college football fans across the country.

The only mention SHSU might get on Monday is from radio and TV talking heads as they point out the embarrassing victories by schools like LSU, Baylor (70-6 vs. Northwestern State), Texas A&M (73-3 vs. Lamar) and Arkansas (73-7 vs. Nicholls State) against poor-little nobody schools who were just happy to take home a sizable check.

I like to think Sam Houston State should be mentioned in the converation with fellow FCS Top 25 teams NDSU, EWU, UCA and McNeese, not Southland Conference opponents the Kats have dominated in recent years.

But based on what I watched this weekend, there’s not much room to argue.

If you play poorly, you’re probably going to lose. If you play poorly against a really good opponent, you’re going to get embarrassed.

The Bearkats played awful at LSU, and it was embarrassing.

One blown call: How SHSU's baseball team saw its Super Regional odds go from a safe bet to virtually no chance in 20 minutes

I’ve known Jason Barfield for almost 20 years. We’ve watched hundreds of games together all over the country, including an untold number of Sam Houston State football, basketball and baseball games and other athletic contests. We’ve been broadcast partners in the past, and since moving in 2006, I’ve enjoyed listening to my good friend provide play-by-play coverage of SHSU athletics.

Barfield would readily, and proudly, admit to being a Bearkat homer on occasion. He’s not afraid to express his displeasure with the decision of a referee or umpire. But something was different Sunday at 2:10 a.m. as he called the action of SHSU’s epic NCAA tournament regional game against TCU.  When second base umpire Jeff Head called Luke Plucheck for runner’s interference in the bottom of the 21st inning, and in the process took away the game-winning run from the Bearkats, the tone of Barfield’s voice was filled with something heavier than outrage, anger or frustration. Bad decisions by an umpire or referee are a part of every sport, but this was more than just an ordinary mistake.

To be fair, Head’s call did not cause SHSU to lose the game. Full credit should be given to TCU for manufacturing a run in the top half of the 22nd inning to take a 3-2 lead. When the Bearkats could not answer, the Horned Frogs walked away winners in the second longest NCAA tournament baseball game ever played.

The controversial call did not cause the Bearkats to lose, but it did, for a fact, take away a victory that was important — almost essential — to their chances of winning the regional, advancing for the first time ever to a Super Regional and possibly even more.

So, how important is it to start 2-0 in regional play? Let's take a look at NCAA Tournament regional results from 2010 through 2014. (That's five of the 16 years in which the NCAA has used this current format. I'm not a math major, but I think a 31.25 percent sample size would be considered statistically significant.)

How many teams, regardless of their seed, started 2-0 and won their regional?  
There have been 80 regional tournaments played from 2010-2014. Teams that started 2-0, regardless of their seed, have gone on to win 65 times, meaning a team has an 81.25% chance of advancing to the Super Regional if it starts 2-0.

Since 2010, of the 65 teams that started 2-0 and won their regional...
— 51 finished with a 3-0 record (78.5%)
— 41 of the 51 teams that finished 3-0 were No. 1 seeds.
— 14 teams started 2-0 and were pushed to a "Monday" winner-take-all game, but still won the regional (21.5%).
— Of the 14 teams pushed to a "Monday" winner-take-all game, seven were No. 1 seeds, meaning 41 out of 48 No. 1 seeds that started 2-0 and won their regional did it with a 3-0 record (85.4%)

(Interesting note: In 2013, every single team that won a regional started 2-0, including 14 of the 16 No. 1 seeds along with two No. 2 seeds. A total of 12 teams won their regional with a 3-0 record.)  

Based on their seed, how did teams that started 2-0 finish in their regional? 
— No. 1 seeds started 2-0 53 times, and won their regional 48 times (90.6%).*
— No. 2 seeds started 2-0 14 times, and won their regional 8 times (57.1%).
— No. 3 seeds started 2-0 11 times, and won their regional 8 times (72.7%).
— No. 4 seeds started 2-0 two times, and won their regional one time (College of Charleston in 2014).

* — Since 2010 only five out of 53 No. 1 seeds have lost their regional after a 2-0 start (9.4%): LSU to No. 2 Houston in 2014, Indiana to No. 3 Stanford in 2014, Clemson to No. 2 UConn in 2011, Georgia Tech to No. 2 Alabama in 2010, and Louisville to No. 2 Vanderbilt in 2010.  

How did lower seeds (2, 3, 4) that started 2-0 fare in the championship round vs. No. 1 seeds? 
— The No. 2, 3 and 4 seeds have collectively gone 2-0 at 27 regional tournaments over the past five seasons, and those teams have gone on to win their regional 17 times (63%).
— Lower seeds played a No. 1 seed from the loser's bracket 11 times in the championship round, and won six times (54.5%).

Which seeds were able to come back from the losers bracket to win their regional? 
Since 2010, 15 teams have come from the loser's bracket win a regional. That's a total of just 18.75% of all regional winners over the past five years, or about three each season that come through the loser's bracket.
— No. 1 seeds have done it six times.
— No. 2 seeds have done it six times.
— No. 3 seeds have done it two times (Stanford vs. No. 1 Indiana in 2014; Cal vs. No. 2 Baylor in 2011).
— No. 4 seeds have done it one time (Stony Brook vs. No. 2 Central Florida in 2012).

That’s a lot of number crunching to prove some things most college baseball fans already knew, but with a shocking level of statistical certainty to back it up.
— Teams that start 2-0, regardless of their seed, win more than 80% of the regional tournaments, and the "lower" seeds who do it win most of the time as well even when they have to face the No. 1 seed in the championship round.
—When a No. 1 seeds starts 2-0, forget about it. They almost always win the regional (90.6%), and they usual do it by going undefeated.
— In the past five years, less than 20 percent of the regional tournaments (15 of 80) were won by a team that started 1-1. It’s hard for the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds to pull off the five-games-in-four-days comeback, and virtually impossible for the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds to do it.
— Only once in the past five seasons (Stanford vs. Indiana in 2014) has a No. 3 seed come through the loser's bracket to knock off a No. 1 seed that started 2-0.

Yes, the Bearkats were going to have to find some offense. It’s hard to believe they would have knocked off TCU in the championship round while averaging less than one run every nine innings. But TCU would have faced its own set of challenges — returning to the field on virtually no rest to play Sienna in the heat of the day, using more pitching and expending what little energy they had before turning around 90 minutes later to play a well-rested and supremely confident SHSU squad. Even if TCU pushed the series to a Monday winner-take-all final game, history indicates the Bearkats would have had a better than 50-50 chance of coming out on top.

For a brief moment Sunday at 2:10 a.m., as the Kats were storming the field in celebration with what they thought was a 2-0 regional record, SHSU's chances of advancing to the Super Regional were about 80 percent. Twenty minutes later when the game ended with TCU winning, SHSU's chances of winning the regional with a 1-1 record had dropped to less than 2 percent. 

Let those numbers marinate on your brain for a minute.

Now, consider this: the Fort Worth Regional winner is playing Pepperdine in a Super Regional this coming weekend. The Waves, also a No. 3 seed, do not have lights at their baseball stadium, meaning there was an excellent chance SHSU could have been hosting a three-game series with a trip to the College World Series in Omaha, NE, on the line.

Heartbreak. That was the extra layer in Barfield’s voice as he described the chaotic scene unfolding in front of him. It was the agony every SHSU fan that sat at Lupton Stadium or listened on the radio for nearly seven hours was feeling.

 A regional championship, a Huntsville Super Regional, and a trip to Omaha. All of it was in the palm of Sam Houston State’s hands, until Jeff Head raised his in the air.

Yeah, this one is going to hurt for a while.